No major-party figure has formally entered the 2028 presidential race yet, but the trading board is already active. On Fanatics Markets, Vice President JD Vance held the highest quoted Yes price on October 21, 2026, at 25%.

That figure lands in a week of fresh 2028 comments from Vance and President Donald Trump. With the November 3 midterms less than two weeks away, here is where the contracts stand and what traders are watching next.

Key Takeaways

• Vance led the board at a quoted Yes price of 25% on October 21, 2026. Sen. Jon Ossoff followed at 15% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 13%.
• A quoted price shows what traders pay for a contract. It is not a poll result or a forecast of vote share.
• As of mid-October, no major figure from either party had formally declared a 2028 campaign.
• Ocasio-Cortez has said she will decide on a 2028 bid after the November 3 midterms.

What’s Moving the 2028 Market

The latest Republican headlines center on endorsements. In remarks reported on October 20, Vance said he expected Trump to endorse him if he runs in 2028. He had also said over the weekend that there was a chance he would not run at all.

A day later, Trump said the two had not discussed an endorsement, according to CNN. Trump has also repeatedly encouraged competition between Vance and Rubio for the Republican nomination.

On the Democratic side, the latest data point is a new poll. A Focaldata survey for the Financial Times, published October 11, found 30% of likely Democratic primary voters choosing former Vice President Kamala Harris. The same survey of 2,553 US adults put Vance at 38% among likely Republican primary voters.

Two other names on the board have made public statements about their plans. Ossoff told WSB-TV in Atlanta that he has “zero interest in running for president in 2028.” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has said she will decide on a presidential bid after the midterms.

Where the 2028 Board Stands

Fanatics Markets is a sports-first prediction markets platform within the Fanatics ecosystem, with event-based markets that extend into politics. On its contract for the 2028 US presidential election winner, the quoted Yes prices on October 21, 2026, were as follows:

• JD Vance: 25%
• Jon Ossoff: 15%
• Marco Rubio: 13%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 12%
• Kamala Harris: 9%
• Josh Shapiro: 8%
• Mark Kelly: 7%

Each name is a separate Yes/No event contract. A few other listed names showed quotes without an active two-sided spread at the time, so they are not included here.

A Yes contract quoted at 25% costs about 25 cents and returns $1 if that person wins. If the person does not win, the contract settles at zero. A listed name only means a contract exists for that outcome; it does not mean the person is running.

Reading the Gap Between Polls and Prices

Harris drew 30% in the Focaldata primary survey but sat at 9% on the board. These figures answer different questions. The survey measured nomination preference among likely primary voters, while the contract asks who wins the general election in November 2028.

A poll is a snapshot of public opinion at a point in time. A market price reflects what traders will pay for a contract tied to one outcome. Neither figure settles the result, and both can shift quickly with news.

The quotes themselves also need careful reading. Vance’s Yes quote of 25% and No quote of 78% add up to 103%. That gap reflects the bid/ask spread built into quoted prices, which is why each figure should be read as a quoted price rather than an exact probability.

Trading depth matters too. A Pew Research Center analysis published September 23, 2026, found that monthly notional trading volume on politics at Kalshi has stayed under $300 million, while Polymarket’s has averaged around $2 billion since the start of 2026. Sports drives most activity across both venues, so political contracts can trade more thinly.

How the Contract Settles

The contract rules state a $1 return per contract if the prediction is correct and nothing if it is incorrect. The market resolves when the winner of the 2028 election is announced, using the sources listed in Rule 14.49(c) of the exchange rulebook. The election itself is scheduled for November 7, 2028.

If the event is cancelled, open positions settle at the volume-weighted average price at the time of cancellation. That can return more or less than the original amount paid. The rules also warn that liquidity may be low once election results start coming in.

Fees affect every trade. Under the fee schedule effective September 2, 2026, a trading fee of $0.00034 to $0.02 applies to each contract bought or sold, and a 25-cent contract carries the top rate of $0.02. Exiting a position before settlement is itself a trade, so it carries its own fee.

Morton St. Trading Investments, LLC, doing business as Fanatics Markets, is a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant and NFA member. Contracts are offered through Crypto.com | Derivatives North America.

Users must be 21 or older and located in an eligible jurisdiction. As of October 21, 2026, the Fanatics Markets availability page listed 22 states and 4 territories, and neither New York nor Washington, DC was on the list.

Federal rules are still developing as well. On June 10, 2026, the CFTC published a proposed rule on which event contracts can be listed on registered prediction markets. The CFTC’s prediction markets guide explains how these contracts work for first-time readers.

What Traders Are Watching

The November 3 midterms. Potential contenders from both parties are campaigning for House, Senate and governor candidates in the final weeks, according to The Washington Post. Close House and Senate races have also put a spotlight on midterm voter turnout this year.

Post-midterm decisions. Ocasio-Cortez has tied her decision to the period after the midterms. Any formal announcement from a listed name could move its contract.

Endorsement signals. On the Republican side, the exchange between Vance and Trump over an endorsement remains open. Further comments from either could register on the Vance and Rubio contracts.

Thin order books. Event contracts can see wide spreads and partial fills outside peak news cycles. Prices on less active names can move sharply on small trades.

The Bottom Line

Two years out, the 2028 board reflects early positioning rather than a settled field. Vance holds the top quoted price, but no major candidate has formally declared and several names have yet to state their plans.

The midterms are the next major checkpoint. For anyone following the market, the useful habit is to read each price alongside its date, its spread and the contract rules behind it.

FAQ

Who leads the 2028 presidential election market?

On October 21, 2026, Vance had the highest quoted Yes price at 25% among actively quoted contracts. Prices change with news and trading activity.

Has anyone declared a 2028 presidential campaign?

As of mid-October 2026, no major figure from either party had formally declared. A name on a market board only means a contract exists for that outcome.

Does a 25% price mean a 25% chance of winning?

It is commonly read as the market’s estimate of likelihood. Because quoted prices include a spread, it is an approximation and not a poll result or a promise of any outcome.

When does the 2028 market settle?

It resolves when the winner of the 2028 election is announced. The election is scheduled for November 7, 2028.

What happens if the market is cancelled?

Open positions settle at the volume-weighted average price at the time of cancellation. That amount can be higher or lower than what was originally paid.

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